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Featured Insight
August Retail Sales Revenue Grew 2% Despite Lacking Consumer Demand, Reports Circana
Year-over-year retail sales data is showing that back-to-school relevant product sales are falling short, indicating that consumer behavior surrounding deadlines related to the start of a new school year has relaxed compared to 2024. Shifts in consumer lifestyle make it necessary for brands and retailers to look beyond traditional retail calendars and seasons, and rely on real purchase data to investigate trends.
Holiday Consumer Shopping Predictions
As experts on consumer behavior data, Circana provides landmark insights into how consumer spending habits shift from year to year across industries and categories based on a combination of consumer panel surveys, our proprietary receipt panel data, and POS sales data from partnered retailers. Through this data, we are able to digest previous consumer trends and forecast future shifts in spending patterns. Our data has shown that retailers and brands need to adopt nimble strategies. Getting locked into purely historical perspectives ignores how consumers are changing, as well as external factors that impact consumer behavior.
How Has Consumer Shopping Around the Holidays Changed in 2025?
Seasonal Timelines for Shopping Are Shifting
Circana’s consumer behavior tracking has shown that the timelines of when shoppers purchase seasonal items are spreading further outside of traditional seasonal lines. While retail spending is holding steady, the ways consumers are spending are changing dramatically. Overreliance on historical data or traditional seasonal timelines and strategies risks missing your consumers' current purchasing behavior.
Consumers Are More Budget-Conscious and Are Shifting Priorities.
External factors like tariffs and inflation are vastly impacting how consumers view essentials over luxury, as well as how they prioritize value. For example, Circana’s verified purchase data showed how consumers are finding value by buying larger sizes and packs while individual unit sales dipped. Within these trends are opportunities for retailers and manufacturers to align their product offerings and marketing strategies to consumers who are prioritizing value.
Consumers Seek Convenience and Make Impulse Purchases
Consumers are leaning more into convenience when shopping, especially in regard to e-commerce. Circana’s market data has shown that in the 12 months ending June 2025, e-commerce accounted for 26% of total retail dollar sales and 54% of dollar growth. Across retail categories, including CPGs, general merchandise, and food and beverage saw increases in YoY e-commerce dollar sales. Developing strong e-commerce strategies and understanding how/where your consumers are shopping will be essential to holiday retail performance.
How To Adjust Retailer Strategies Based on Current Holiday Shopping Behaviors
Continually Evaluate Shopping Timing and Promotional Strategies
Retailers are running promotions more frequently and outside of traditional schedules and seasonal timelines. “Black Friday in July” and similar promotions can stand out to consumers and address their specific purchase behaviors and need states. From a competitive standpoint, you need to understand when and how deep other retailers are running their promotions.
Monitor Pricing, Demand and Replenishment Rates Closely
Consumers' shifting behaviors are leading to faster product lifecycles. “Reorder Monday” is not fast enough anymore. Replenishment rates and product lifecycles need to be understood through data-driven forecasting methods. What was in today can be forgotten in only a few days, so it is essential to continuously monitor and adjust your strategy based on key performance metrics.
Retail Innovation in Marketing and Products Drives Demand
There are significant opportunities in new product features and providing enhanced benefits to consumers. Manufacturers and retailers need to understand their consumers’ needs on an individual attribute level to ensure that both products and marketing efforts meet consumers where they are. Macroeconomic trends are pushing more consumers into evaluating products, looking for new brands, and seeking items that directly satisfy their specific needs.
Featured Solution
Circana’s Complete Consumer Solution
Understand How Your Consumers Are Shopping
Circana’s Consumer Solutions integrate signals from your sales data alongside our proprietary panel data to gather valuable insights into how your consumers are shopping. Through our solutions, you can build data-driven strategies across product development and marketing strategy that are fine-tuned to your consumers’ needs and buying behavior.
